For weeks, experts have been bracing for the effects of the Delta variant, a version of the coronavirus first discovered in India that is twice as contagious and has an enhanced ability to evade protective antibodies. Now, a startling new surge in cases suggests that Delta is established in Louisiana and the previously beaten-back virus is once again on the rise.
“I do think we’re in it,” said Dr. Joe Kanter, assistant secretary of health. “We are seeing what is likely the beginning of increases.”
Over the last week, cases have increased by 3,360, the biggest spike since March 4, the tail-end of the winter surge. Cases have more than doubled over the last 14 days, likely an effect of the more contagious Delta variant making its way into unvaccinated hosts.
Delta is now the dominant strain in the U.S., making up 52% of new cases. In Louisiana and neighboring states, it is responsible for up 59% of new cases.
With one of the lowest vaccination rates in the country, Louisiana residents have a higher risk for coronavirus infection. Just 39% of the population has received at least one shot, behind only Mississippi. Nationally, the rate for vaccine initiation is 55%, with states like Vermont, Hawaii and Massachusetts now over 70%.
“Across the country, the spike will be bigger in the areas that have lower vaccination rates, which unfortunately is us and a number of our neighboring states,” said Kanter. “There is just no question about that.”
It is unclear how long the increase will be sustained, though experts said people hospitalized by the virus are unlikely to overwhelm health systems in Louisiana as they did in the past. Deaths and hospitalizations, which lag a few weeks behind surges in cases, will still rise, but at least some of the population -- including most seniors, who made up the majority of deaths before vaccines were available -- are protected by the vaccines.
Dr. Joseph Kanter speaks at a press conference, Thursday, April 22, 2021, at the Louisiana State Capitol in Baton Rouge, La.
“I don't anticipate it’s going to be as bad as it was in March of last year and January of this year, but it’s not going to be pretty if we don't get a hold of it,” said Dr. Julio Figueroa, an infectious disease expert at LSU Health New Orleans.
Figueroa is seeing an increase in hospitalized patients, especially younger people. But he’s also seeing an uptick in COVID among vaccinated people with weakened immune systems, such as transplant patients.
Doctors also said they’re seeing more transmission among family members and close contacts, a product of the Delta variant’s infectiousness, which may be transmitted in fleeting interactions. Authorities in Australia believe an outbreak was triggered there when a limo driver with COVID-19 infected others in an indoor mall and cafe, despite not interacting with them directly.
David Owens figured he might come down with COVID-19.
“One household member getting other members sick with the ‘garden-variety’ strain, if you will, was anywhere from 11% to 20%,” said Dr. Sandra Kemmerly, an infectious disease expert at Ochsner Health. “Now it is far more likely to spread rapidly among family, people that congregate together.”
Since June 30, Ochsner has seen hospitalized patients increase from 55 to nearly 100.
The increase is nowhere near previous surges yet, but it’s all the more tragic with vaccines available.
“We are seeing people get very sick and the family hasn’t been vaccinated and their loved one dies, and that is maybe a little bit of a realization too late," said Kemmerly. "And that’s heart-breaking."
But it’s also frustrating for health care providers who have been fighting the pandemic for 16 months.
“We knew back in the spring of 2020 that vaccines were our way out of this,” said Kemmerly. “Here we are now, in the summer of 2021, with very effective vaccines and people unwilling to take them for whatever reason.”
Dr. Catherine O'Neal, the chief medical officer at Our Lady of the Lake in Baton Rouge, said she is experiencing flashbacks of last summer's surge.
"It's eerily similar to last July," said O'Neal, who described a slow climb in community spread before widespread transmission caused hospitalizations to skyrocket. "It's like somebody throws gasoline on a fire."
The delta variant of COVID-19 has spawned a new, troubling variant known as delta-plus that has been identified for the first time in Louisian…
And while more people are protected now than they were last year, natural immunity from prior infection does not protect against the Delta variant.
"We've gone on this premise of communities that got hit hard early, maybe there's some natural immunity helping," said O'Neal. "That won't help with this variant."
Since the vaccines became available, over 99% of coronavirus deaths in Louisiana were in people who were unvaccinated. Just 27 of the 3,920 deaths were among people who were fully vaccinated, Kanter said Thursday. The state has averaged 45 to 65 deaths per week over the last couple months, according to the Louisiana Department of Health.
They were fishermen, artists, basketball coaches, bus drivers.
The vaccines are a relatively good match for the Delta variant, with studies showing the Pfizer vaccine is somewhere between 64% to 88% effective.
But rising cases also threaten the vaccinated, though to a much lesser extent. As cases rise, there will be more chances for so-called ‘breakthrough’ cases. And the more transmissions, the more opportunities for the virus to mutate in ways that allow it to slip past the vaccine's defenses. Officials are urging inoculation now, while the vaccines are effective.
"If we get vaccinated, we can do something about it," said Kemmerly. "If we don’t get vaccinated, we may be wishing for the variants to be what they are now and not what they may be in the future.”
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