California has the lowest COVID rate in the U.S. Here’s why the Bay Area is doing even better - San Francisco Chronicle

California has recently distinguished itself as the state with the lowest coronavirus case rate in the U.S. — but data this week shows the Bay Area is performing even better.

Since last week, California has been the lone state in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s orange “substantial” level of coronavirus community transmission, with the rest of the nation in the red “high” level, based on case rates and positive test rates.

But the Bay Area’s numbers are lower than the state’s, and certain counties in the region are doing particularly well, despite the highly transmissible delta variant. According to state data, the Bay Area’s 7-day average daily case rate per 100,000 was 13 as of Sept. 20, compared to California’s case rate of 22.

San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties were below the regional average with a case rate of 11 per 100,000, and Marin County’s rate was even lower at 10. Alameda, Contra Costa and Sonoma counties all had rates in the low to mid-teens. The Bay Area counties with the highest case rates were Napa, at 18.5 per 100,000, and Solano, with 20.5 per 100,000 — still below the state average.

Given the Bay Area’s record throughout the pandemic, such relatively low numbers were to be expected, according to Bay Area experts.

“It does not surprise me,” said Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at UCSF, in an email. “We have done it before and we will continue to do this in the future.”

Visitors enjoy California Academy of Sciences exhibits in San Francisco on Aug. 3 — the day indoor mask mandates were in effect once again because of increasing cases of COVID-19 in the Bay Area.

Nina Riggio/The Chronicle

He said the Bay Area’s low case rates can be attributed to high vaccination rates plus the “extras,” which include mask-wearing and high coronavirus testing rates. The Bay Area’s counties, with the exception of Solano, are at the top of the rankings for vaccination rates statewide, and the same eight counties have indoor mask mandates for all, regardless of vaccination status.

“The Bay Area is the golden child of COVID mitigation,” Chin-Hong said. “Our people are public health savvy. They align politics with science given our history of the AIDS epidemic, our vaccination rates are the highest in the country including adolescents, and we have made deep inroads into vulnerable populations so that all groups have high testing and vaccination rates in general.”

A comparison of the other metric determining community transmission levels — positive test rates — shows most Bay Area counties are also recording lower numbers than the state. California’s 7-day positive test rate was 2.9% as of Sept. 20. Here are the rates for each Bay Area county, according to state data:

• Alameda: 2%

• Contra Costa: 2.9%

• Marin: 1.9%

• Napa: 2.7%

• San Francisco: 1.9%

• San Mateo: 1.7%

• Santa Clara: 1.5%

• Sonoma: 2.3%

• Solano: 3.3%

Only Solano County exceeded the state’s positive test rate at 3.3%, and Contra Costa County matched it.

Chin-Hong said he anticipates a continuing general decline in case rates over the next few weeks, but said he wouldn’t be surprised by a “sawtooth” pattern with minor ups and downs.

Kellie Hwang is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: kellie.hwang@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @KellieHwang

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