COVID-19 hospitalizations plummeted in Alabama this week, along with most other key indicators used to measure the pandemic, with one important exception - deaths keep going up.
Alabama hospitals were treating 500 fewer patients for the coronavirus this Friday than they were the previous Friday. That’s a decline of 23% in a week. The total number of COVID hospitalizations in the state fell below 2,000 earlier this week for the first time since Aug. 7, more than a month ago.
As of Friday afternoon, 1,669 patients were being treated for the virus in state hospitals, the lowest total since Aug. 2, according to data from the Alabama Department of Public Health.
[Can’t see the chart? Click here.]
The delta wave continues to follow a slightly different pattern than previous waves, at least in terms of hospitalizations. The upward surge in hospitalizations seen in Alabama in July and August was marked by its steep curve. The number of COVID patients increased nearly every day for more than a month, shooting straight up instead of trending up over time with days of increased and decreased patient counts.
The lack of that “sawtooth” pattern was unique to the highly contagious delta strain, and the latest decline in hospitalizations is following a similar pattern. The number of COVID inpatients has fallen in each of the last 12 days. That’s the longest continuous stretch of falling hospitalization numbers since the pandemic began.
Delta hospitalizations peaked on Sept. 1 at 2,890 patients. Since then the number has fallen by more than 1,200 patients, or 42%.
Meanwhile, across the state, fewer people are testing positive, too. The weekly new case total reported by APDH fell for the fourth consecutive week. The state reported less than 20,000 new virus cases this week for the first time since late July.
[Can’t see the chart? Click here.]
And among those who do get tested, a smaller share are testing positive. The state’s positivity rate on new COVID tests fell to 14.7% on Friday - the first time that number has fallen below 15% since July 19.
While hospitalizations, cases and the positivity rate continue to drop, the number of deaths reported by ADPH skyrocketed this week. ADPH reported nearly 900 deaths in the week ending Sept. 24, nearly double the total from the previous week, and the highest weekly death total since early February.
RELATED: Alabama now reporting more than 100 COVID deaths per day
The 7-day average for newly reported deaths climbed past 100 per day for the first time since February this week. It reached as high as 135 deaths reported per day on Thursday, before settling at 125 per day on Friday.
The state has reported at least 100 deaths in six of the last eight days - the only days where it didn’t were weekends, when very few deaths are ever reported.
It takes an average of two weeks, and sometimes longer, for a death to get reported by ADPH. That means the deaths being reported now likely happened earlier. It’s unclear exactly when these deaths occurred, but what’s becoming more clear every day is just how big a toll delta took on Alabama.
Outbreak Alabama: Understanding the state’s shocking death numbers
It’s possible we could see this surge in reported deaths continue in the coming weeks, and we could see more deaths reported in the northern part of the state. Alabama’s delta wave started in the south, near the Gulf Coast. Those areas were hit hard early, before the surge spread north. Many counties in south Alabama still carry the highest total and per capita death numbers from delta.
[Can’t see the map? Click here.]
Since July 1, just before the onset of delta here, no county has seen more COVID deaths than Mobile, where 386 people have reportedly died in just under three months.
When controlling for population, the toll in South Alabama is even more evident. Eight counties have seen at least 10 COVID deaths per 10,000 people since July 1, and all of them are in the southern half of the state. Conecuh County has been the hardest hit, with 13.8 deaths per 10,000 in that time. Geneva County, on the border with Florida, was just behind at 13.1 death per 10,000 residents.
But deaths are now starting to be reported in the northern part of the state, too. Mobile County still reported the most new deaths this week at 52, but Madison County, home of Huntsville in north Alabama, was second with 51 new deaths reported.
Do you have an idea for a data story about Alabama? Email Ramsey Archibald at rarchibald@al.com, and follow him on Twitter @RamseyArchibald. Read more Alabama data stories here.
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